Why I Wrote The Luck Illusion

I began writing The Luck Illusion because of a question that had stayed with me for years: why do some people appear fortunate, while others seem to face one setback after another?

We often attribute these differences to luck. Take, for example, getting a job, falling ill, meeting the right person, or facing failure. But I became more interested in what truly causes those outcomes. Calling something lucky or unlucky describes how an outcome appears, not why it happened.

That question led me into the realms of psychology, philosophy, causality, and probability—valuable for understanding success, failure, and human judgment. However, they often use academic language that can seem distant from daily life. I aimed to make these ideas more accessible.

I set out to explore complex questions through clear language, familiar situations, and ordinary human experiences. The aim was not to simplify the ideas to the point of losing their meaning, but to present them in a way that encourages readers to reflect on their own lives. You learn by looking at real lives, and you describe these things as you find them. That was the encyclopedia stored in my head.

Everyday observation probably played the most important part in the book. I have seen capable people struggle despite their efforts, while others have benefited from opportunities they could not have planned. I have seen poor decisions end well and sensible decisions end badly.

None of this means that effort is unimportant or that chance does not exist. It means that outcomes are usually more complicated than they first appear.

I wrote The Luck Illusion to answer a question that isn't often asked and explore the conditions that shape lives, making ideas accessible beyond psychology, philosophy, or books on causality. Perhaps luck isn't always an explanation.

Perhaps luck is sometimes the word we use before we have looked closely enough at the causes.

The Luck Illusion will be published on 28th July 2026.